Thursday, September 13, 2007
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Thursday, September 13, 2007
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Bank accounts and checks were presented, big-time witnesses surfaced, alleged accomplices apprehended, bail petitioned thrown out — one would indeed be led to believe that President Joseph “Erap” Estrada is guilty of the charges of perjury and plunder. I was led to believe that, too. So when the SandiganBayan issued the verdict just hours ago, finding Erap guilty of the plunder (acquitted in perjury), it didn’t came like an ear-splitting, roaring thunder to me. Or at least to me...
ERAP IS GUILTY. But is it the END?
Before this verdict, I'd been thinking of two political scenarios why Erap would be found guilty. The verdict will be a substantiation — or nullification — of the Edsa Dos . Consequently, this will be a question of Arroyo Administration’s legitimacy. If the verdict is not guilty — and Erap would be acquitted — then it would mean that the military and businessmen-backed “revolution” was wrong. Why would you unsit a president because of false allegations? It would be a clear “power grab” by civil society, the Church and political groups. If the verdict is not guilty, then Erap should still be the president today.
On the other scenario, if he is found guilty, he would be “martyrized” by his loyalists who account for more than 50 percent of Metro Manila residents. Apart from that, if Erap do not accept presidential pardon, people who are not loyal to Estrada or those who do not consider themselves pro-Erap may easily switch support and give sympathy to Estrada. A mob with a huge number of pro-Erap supporters could easily “politicize” the AFP and, as a chain effect, could repeat the same Edsa Revolution used to topple Erap.
But the verdict has been issued. I'm no lawyer, but I believe an SC's reversal of the Sandigan Bayan’s decision would illicit legal consequences as it would contradict former Chief Justice Hilario Davide and the company’s acceptance and validation of GMA’s presidency in 2001. Therefore, it is either Erap goes to jail and serve the remaining reclusion perpetua punishment meted out against him, or he accepts presidential pardon GMA would give him. But Erap just stated in public that he will not accept presidential pardon if convicted guilty and is ready to serve his sentence in Muntinlupa. But would millions of Erap passionate supporters let him go to jail without a fight or show of force, in legal way or in mass actions?
ERAP IS GUILTY. But is it the END?
Before this verdict, I'd been thinking of two political scenarios why Erap would be found guilty. The verdict will be a substantiation — or nullification — of the Edsa Dos . Consequently, this will be a question of Arroyo Administration’s legitimacy. If the verdict is not guilty — and Erap would be acquitted — then it would mean that the military and businessmen-backed “revolution” was wrong. Why would you unsit a president because of false allegations? It would be a clear “power grab” by civil society, the Church and political groups. If the verdict is not guilty, then Erap should still be the president today.
On the other scenario, if he is found guilty, he would be “martyrized” by his loyalists who account for more than 50 percent of Metro Manila residents. Apart from that, if Erap do not accept presidential pardon, people who are not loyal to Estrada or those who do not consider themselves pro-Erap may easily switch support and give sympathy to Estrada. A mob with a huge number of pro-Erap supporters could easily “politicize” the AFP and, as a chain effect, could repeat the same Edsa Revolution used to topple Erap.
But the verdict has been issued. I'm no lawyer, but I believe an SC's reversal of the Sandigan Bayan’s decision would illicit legal consequences as it would contradict former Chief Justice Hilario Davide and the company’s acceptance and validation of GMA’s presidency in 2001. Therefore, it is either Erap goes to jail and serve the remaining reclusion perpetua punishment meted out against him, or he accepts presidential pardon GMA would give him. But Erap just stated in public that he will not accept presidential pardon if convicted guilty and is ready to serve his sentence in Muntinlupa. But would millions of Erap passionate supporters let him go to jail without a fight or show of force, in legal way or in mass actions?
Posted by
Nutty Boy
Labels:
Batasan Pambansa,
Erap Plunder Case,
guilty,
Hilario Davide,
Philippine Politics,
Philippine Supreme Court,
Sandiganbayan,
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